Monday, October 1, 2012

Sir John Templeton 16 Rules For Investment Success


Interesting set of rules from legendary investor John Templeton:

No. 1 INVEST FOR MAXIMUM TOTAL REAL RETURN
This means the return on invested dollars after taxes and after inflation. This is the only rational objective for most long-term investors. Any investment strategy that fails to recognize the insidious effect of taxes and inflation fails to recognize the true nature of the investment environment and thus is severely handicapped.

It is vital that you protect purchasing power. One of the biggest mistakes people make is putting too much money into fixed-income securities.

Today’s dollar buys only what 35 cents bought in the mid 1970s, what 21 cents bought in 1960, and what 15 cents bought after World War II. U.S. consumer prices have risen every one of the last 38 years.

If inflation averages 4%, it will reduce the buying power of a $100,000 portfolio to $68,000 in just 10 years. In other words, to maintain the same buying power, that portfolio would have to grow to $147,000— a 47% gain simply to remain even over a decade. And this doesn’t even count taxes.

No. 2 INVEST—DON’T TRADE OR SPECULATE
The stock market is not a casino, but if you move in and out of stocks every time they move a point or two, or if you continually sell short… or deal only in options…or trade in futures…the market will be your casino. And, like most gamblers, you may lose eventually—or frequently.

You may find your profits consumed by commissions. You may find a market you expected to turn down turning up—and up, and up—in defiance of all your careful calculations and short sales. Every time a Wall Street news announcer says, “This just in,” your heart will stop.

Keep in mind the wise words of Lucien Hooper, a Wall Street legend: “What always impresses me,” he wrote,“is how much better the relaxed, long-term owners of stock do with their portfolios than the traders do with their switching of inventory. The relaxed investor is usually better informed and more understanding of essential values; he is more patient and less emotional; he pays smaller capital gains taxes; he does not incur unnecessary brokerage commissions; and he avoids behaving like Cassius by ‘thinking too much.’”

No.3 REMAIN FLEXIBLE AND OPEN-MINDED ABOUT TYPES OF INVESTMENT
There are times to buy blue chip stocks, cyclical stocks, corporate bonds, U.S. Treasury instruments, and so on. And there are times to sit on cash, because sometimes cash enables you to take advantage of investment opportunities.

The fact is there is no one kind of investment that is always best. If a particular industry or type of security becomes popular with investors, that popularity will always prove temporary and—when lost—may not return for many years.

Having said that, I should note that, for most of the time, most of our clients’ money has been in common stocks. A look at history will show why. From January of 1946 through June of 1991, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 11.4% average annually—including reinvestment of dividends but not counting taxes—compared with an average annual inflation rate of 4.4%. Had the Dow merely kept pace with inflation, it would be around 1,400 right now instead of over 3,000, a figure that seemed extreme to some 10 years ago, when I calculated that it was a very realistic possibility on the horizon.

Look also at the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Index of 500 stocks. From the start of the 1950s through the end of the 1980s—four decades altogether—the S&P 500 rose at an average rate of 12.5%, compared with 4.3% for inflation, 4.8% for U.S. Treasury bonds, 5.2% for Treasury bills, and 5.4% for high-grade corporate bonds.

In fact, the S&P 500 outperformed inflation, Treasury bills, and corporate bonds in every decade except the ’70s, and it outperformed Treasury bonds—supposedly the safest of all investments—in all four decades. I repeat: There is no real safety without preserving purchasing power.

No. 4 BUY LOW
Of course, you say, that’s obvious. Well, it may be, but that isn’t the way the market works. When prices are high, a lot of investors are buying a lot of stocks. Prices are low when demand is low. Investors have pulled back, people are discouraged and pessimistic.

When almost everyone is pessimistic at the same time, the entire market collapses. More often, just stocks in particular fields fall. Industries such as automaking and casualty insurance go through regular cycles. Sometimes stocks of companies like the thrift institutions or money-center banks fall out of favor all at once.

Whatever the reason, investors are on the sidelines, sitting on their wallets. Yes, they tell you: “Buy low, sell high.” But all too many of them bought high and sold low. Then you ask: “When will you buy the stock?” The usual answer: “Why, after analysts agree on a favorable outlook.”

This is foolish, but it is human nature. It is extremely difficult to go against the crowd—to buy when everyone else is selling or has sold, to buy when things look darkest, to buy when so many experts are telling you that stocks in general, or in this particular industry, or even in this particular company, are risky right now.

But, if you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you can’t outperform the market if you buy the market. And chances are if you buy what everyone is buying you will do so only after it is already overpriced.

Heed the words of the great pioneer of stock analysis Benjamin Graham: “Buy when most people…including experts…are pessimistic, and sell when they are actively optimistic.”

Bernard Baruch, advisor to presidents, was even more succinct:

“Never follow the crowd.”

So simple in concept. So difficult in execution.

No. 5 WHEN BUYING STOCKS, SEARCH FOR BARGAINS AMONG QUALITY STOCKS
Quality is a company strongly entrenched as the sales leader in a growing market. Quality is a company that’s the technological leader in a field that depends on technical innovation. Quality is a strong management team with a proven track record. Quality is a well-capitalized company that is among the first into a new market. Quality is a wellknown trusted brand for a high-profit-margin consumer product.

Naturally, you cannot consider these attributes of quality in isolation. A company may be the low-cost producer, for example, but it is not a quality stock if its product line is falling out of favor with customers. Likewise, being the technological leader in a technological field means little without adequate capitalization for expansion and marketing.

Determining quality in a stock is like reviewing a restaurant. You don’t expect it to be 100% perfect, but before it gets three or four stars you want it to be superior.

No. 6 BUY VALUE, NOT MARKET TRENDS OR THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
A wise investor knows that the stock market is really a market of stocks. While individual stocks may be pulled along momentarily by a strong bull market, ultimately it is the individual stocks that determine the market, not vice versa. All too many investors focus on the market trend or economic outlook. But individual stocks can rise in a bear market and fall in a bull market.

The stock market and the economy do not always march in lock step. Bear markets do not always coincide with recessions, and an overall decline in corporate earnings does not always cause a simultaneous decline in stock prices. So buy individual stocks, not the market trend or economic outlook.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Here's How Warren Buffett Decides To Invest In Something


Warren Buffett is a self-made billionaire. His successful investment business makes him one of the most respected men in the world. 
Buffett attributes all of that to always being prepared. When he was a teenager, he was inspired by a book called "The Intelligent Investor" by Ben Graham. The book tells the importance of being prepared instead of making emotional decisions in business. 
The book The Art of Selling Yourself: The Simple Step-by-Step Process for Success in Business and Life (Tarcher Master Mind Editions) says the book explains Buffett's success because it made him value being prepared. 
Here are a few ways that you can be as prepared as Buffett when you make investment decisions: 
  • Make sure you're getting the investment at a good price. This makes the investment safer in the long-run. 
  • Ask yourself if the investment is long-term. The best investments give back over time instead of offering immediate gratification. 
  • Research if the business is well-managed. Buffett scrutinizes decisions that management are making to ensure that even if the company falls on hard times, the best decisions will be made. 
  • See if the business avoids debt. Buffett doesn't invest in companies that have too many debts to pay off. 
  • Also check out the company's returns. Buffett seeks out company's with a return on investment higher than average--or 11 percent. 
  • See if the business has a competitive edge in its industry. Buffett accomplishes this by seeking out brand-names like Coca-Cola. The brand recognition gives it value. 


From businessinsider.com

Friday, September 21, 2012

There's A Personal Finance Message In ‘Gangnam Style’


The video for “Gangnam Style,” a pop song by Korean rap star Psy (short for Psycho), has been raging across the world. 
It has racked up 221 million YouTube views as of this writing and is the number one song downloaded on iTunes. Psy himself has been on a media tear in the United States and has appeared on the MTV Video Music Awards, Ellen (twice), The Today Show and Saturday Night Live.
And if you haven’t yet seen him, his addictive video or any of the many parodies it has spawned (by the Oregon Duck mascot, Naval Academy cadets, a wedding party, lifeguards and more), get ready to see more of him, because he has signed with Scooter Braun, the man who made stars of Justin Bieber and Carly Rae Jepsen.
But there’s no reason for a personal finance site to be writing about a silly song known for its horse-riding dance, right? Well, actually, it turns out this addictively catchy song and its accompanying video relay a lesson that could help you with your own spending habits.
What Gangnam Style Is All About
The words “gang” and “nam” literally mean “south of the river,” but Gangnam with a capital G is an upscale neighborhood of Seoul (you guessed it) on the south side of the river. As the Beverly Hills of South Korea’s biggest city, it also occupies a psychic place in the minds of Korea’s 99% and represents the luxurious life for which they strive.
The neighborhood is just seven square miles but holds 7% of Korea’s GDP. For comparison, New York state, which is 3,000 times the size of Gangnam holds 7% of U.S. GDP. Forty-one percent of students at the nation’s most prestigious college, Seoul University, come from Gangnam, which in the U.S., would be like having 41% of Harvard students come from Manhattan.
The neighborhood is full of high-rise apartment buildings, high-end department stores, the city’s trendiest boutiques and hottest clubs, and a lot of plastic surgery clinics. As U.S.-based Korean blogger Jae Kim says in her analysis of the song, “In short, it’s like the U.S. Upper East Side plus Beverly Hills minus tradition; or I’d rather say it’s more like ‘Dubai’”–and here, she refers to the area’s recent development–”built on Korean cabbage and Korean pear fields.”
What ‘Gangnam Style’ The Song Is About
But Psy’s rendering of “Gangnam Style” highlights the superficiality of this dream. In the opening scene, Psy is lounging on a beach, dreaming he is being fanned by a beautiful girl. As the camera pans out, you realize he is actually lying on a chair in a sandy children’s playground.
Then you see him in a tux with a girl on each arm, strutting as though down a red carpet, except they appear to be in an underground parking lot, and instead of confetti fluttering down upon them, trash is flying at them with blizzard-like force.
In another scene, he parties like a rock star in a bus outfitted with disco balls, but his fellow partygoers are retirees wearing sun visors.
Meanwhile, in all these scenes, he’s dancing as though he’s riding an invisible horse, almost as though he’s the knight of his own imaginary Camelot.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Peter Lynch's Principles & Golden Rules of Investing


Peter Lynch ran Fidelity's Magellan Fund for 13 years and was regarded as one of the most successful investors during his tenure.  Lynch outlines the broad gist of his investment philosophy with various pearls of basic wisdom in his book, Beating the Street.  

Last week we detailed Lynch on using your edge in investing.  This time we wanted to focus on some more of his advice, taken both from "Peter's Principles" and his "Golden Rules of Investing":


Peter's Principles

- "Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon"

-"You can't see the future through a rearview mirror"

- "When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yield of the S&P 500 by 6 percent or more, sell your stocks and buy bonds."

- "The best stock to buy may be the one you already own."


Peter Lynch's Golden Rules of Investing

- "You have to know what you own, and why you own it."

- "Never invest in a company without understanding its finances.  The biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets.  Always look at the balance sheet to see if a company is solvent before you risk your money on it."

- "Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether."

- "Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient –even if you are missed Wal- Mart in the first 5 years, it was a gr8 stock to own in the next 5 years. Time is against you when you own options." 


From marketfolly.com


Related Books

One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market

Beating the Street

Learn to Earn: A Beginner's Guide to the Basics of Investing (The Classic Guide)

3 Big, Safe Dividend Stocks for the Beginning Investor


Whether you're new to investing or have been at it for a lifetime, you need to understand the business models of the companies you invest in, because understanding how a company makes money will significantly reduce your overall investing risk.
In that spirit, today we'll look at three companies with straightforward business models, strong dividends, and a knack for longevity. Because what good is a great dividend if the company's not going to be around long enough to pay it out?
Without further ado, then, here are three big, safe dividend stocks for the beginning investor, along with the reasons for my personal favorite at the end:
1. Boeing (NYSE: BA  )
727. 737. 747. 787. At first glance, they're just numbers, but upon reflection they're so much more. You've heard them uttered or read about them your whole life. They represent what Boeing is all about: airliners. Boeing is the most successful company in the history of aviation, and indeed is the very essence of American aviation. This is a company that has endured its share of economic ups and downs, just like any other big company that's been around for nearly 100 years, but is still at the top of its game.
From a dividend investor's perspective:
  • I normally look for dividend yields of around 3% -- an arbitrary threshold, but one I feel separates the wheat from the chaff. Boeing pays 2.5% -- under our threshold, but close enough to enjoy consideration as one of our dividend stocks, especially given what a rock-solid industrial giant it is.
  • I like to see dividend-payout ratios of 50% or less: As a rule of thumb, the lower the percentage, the more sustainable it is. At 30%, Boeing's falls well below our 50% mark, which argues well for its longevity.
Boeing's five-year average dividend yield is 2.7%, which bodes well for the longevity of the current 2.5%. But most critically, the orders for aircraft just keep coming, with airlines around the world placing orders in record numbers. On Sept. 6, the company reached a milestone: order No. 500 for its next-generation 737 aircraft, the workhorse of the fleet in airlines everywhere.
2. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  )
Johnson's Baby Shampoo. Tylenol. Band-Aid. Listerine. Brands that are burned into your memory from childhood, and likely still have a significant presence in your life. J&J has been around since 1886, and just like Boeing, has seen its share of ups and downs, including an embarrassing string of product recalls lately. But the company has a new CEO, Alex Gorsky, who is tasked with turning the company around with a strategy focusing on the rehabilitation of the consumer-products division. Given J&J's stable of iconic brands, it's a good one.
From a dividend investor's perspective:
  • I said I look for a 3% yield on our dividend stocks. At 3.6%, J&J easily makes the grade, as does, to its credit, rival Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) , which pays out an identical 3.6%.
  • At 74%, J&J's payout ratio is steeper than I like, but not frighteningly so. Pfizer comes in at a better, but not game-changing, 62% on this metric.
J&J has a five-year average dividend yield of 3.1%, which argues fairly well for the sustainability of the current 3.6%. While having a rough go of it right now, this company will be rehabilitated. In the end, J&J has too much brand strength and too much money in the bank -- $16.9 billion -- to go away anytime soon. And its wide-ranging consumer and medical-professional product lines make it a safer bet in the long run than strictly pharmaceutical-focused Pfizer.