Friday, June 29, 2012

Warren Buffett Stocks with the Lowest P/E Ratios


Cheapness is a top characteristic Warren Buffett requires in companies he invests in, though they must also be high-quality companies. It makes sense then that his portfolio would contain quite a few low-P/E (price over earnings) companies. The lowest of the low are: General Motors Company (GM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Gannett Co. Inc. (GCI) and General Dynamics Corp. (GD).

A low P/E ratio indicates that while a company’s earnings have grown or remained flat, the price has not, for any number of reasons, and may later.

General Motors Company (GM)

Warren Buffett initiated a position of 10 million General Motors shares at an average price of $25 in the first quarter of 2012. The company has a P/E of 5.3, after a steady year-and-a-half P/E plunge.
GM, the world’s top-selling automaker, just returned to public trading on the NYSE in 2010, after filing for and emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, with the help of the U.S. government. Then, GM posted the largest annual profit in its history for 2011, with earnings of $7.6 billion. But with the government retaining almost 30% ownership, GM’s stock price showed only a mild reaction to the news.

In June, GM reported May sales were the highest monthly in 33 months. Consumers purchased 245,256 vehicles in the U.S., up 11 percent year over year, and the highest level since August 2009. Buick and GM sales both were up 19%, and Chevrolet was up 10%.

GM also reinstated its missing dividend on June 12. The payment will be $0.59375 per share quarterly on its Series B mandatory convertible junior preferred stock.

ConocoPhillips (COP)

Buffett has 29,100,937 shares of COP as of the end of third quarter 2012, after whittling down the holding from its peak of over 83 million in 2008. Its P/E is 6, a three-year low. ConocoPhillips’ P/E was around the high teens in 2010, then dropped to the high single digits in 2011 and dropped further still to the current level in the second quarter of 2012.

Prior to that news, on April 4, the company announced it would split into two by spinning of its downstream businesses and remaining an upstream company. The distribution of one share of Phillips 66 for every two shares of ConocoPhillips stock took place on April 30, 2012.

On April 24, COP announced that its first-quarter earnings of $2.9 billion were slightly down from $3.0 the previous year, which coupled with the decline in stock price produced a low P/E.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Warren Buffett's Stocks with the Most Insider Buying


It is a widely known investing axiom that insiders sell their companies' stocks for any number of reasons, but they buy for only one reason - they think the stocks are going to go up. Because Warren Buffett 's stock-picking abilities helped make him one of the world's wealthiest men, checking into his portfolio for companies with heavy insider buying can be a good place to start research on worthwhile stocks.

The stocks in Buffett's portfolio with most active insider buying are: The Coca-Cola Company ( KO ), Gannett Co. Inc. ( GCI ), General Electric Company ( GE ) and The Washington Post Company ( WPO ).

Coca-Cola Company ( KO )

Warren Buffett owned 200 million shares of Coca-Cola at the end of the first quarter, making it almost 20% of his portfolio. He has never sold a share of the company.

Coke had three insider buys in the second quarter: Three directors bought shares. The largest purchase was of more than $20.3 million worth of shares by Director Barry Diller in April. As Diller's purchase price averaged about $77 per share, investors can buy the stock cheaper at its Tuesday price of $75.25 per share after a 0.67% increase for the day.

Six insiders also sold shares of the company in the second quarter.

Two days before Diller and another director bought shares, Coke announced that it was seeking approval for a 2-for-1 stock split. Coke's chairman was pushing for the split, the 11 th in its 92-year history and its first in the last 16 years. Shareholders will vote on the split July 10.

"Our recommended two-for-one stock split reflects the Board of Directors' continued confidence in the long-term growth and financial performance of our Company," said Muhtar Kent, chairman and CEO of TheCoca-Cola Company. "Our system's 2020 Vision to double our revenues over this decade provides a clear roadmap for creating value for our consumers, customers, bottling partners and shareowners. A stock split reflects our desire to share value with an ever-growing number of people and organizations around the world."

Coke also announced in the first quarter its 50 th consecutive annual dividend increase, giving shareholders an 8.5 percent raise from 47 to 51 cents per share per quarter.

Gannett Co. Inc. ( GCI )

Buffett owns 1,740,231 shares of Gannett Co. Inc. as of March 31, 2012, making it a mere 0.035% of his portfolio.

It tied with General Electric Co. ( GE ) for the second-most insider buys in his portfolio, with one director making two purchases of 20,000 shares in the second quarter. Gannett trades for $14.04 Tuesday after a 6.3% jump. Multiple newspaper companies' stocks advanced on Tuesday after News Corp. announced the potential spin-off of its publishing entities.

In its first quarter results released April 16, Gannett announced earnings per share of $0.28 compared to $0.37 per share in the prior-year quarter. Net operating revenues were down 2.6% over the prior year in publishing advertising and publishing circulation, but increased in its digital and broadcasting segments.

Gannett's focus on establishing digital content and advertising platforms that will generate growth was evidenced in a 13 percent increase of digital revenue growth in its Publishing segment.

Regarding future plans, the company is expecting 2% to 4% annual revenue growth and greater earnings growth by 2015, and plans to return more than $1.3 billion to shareholders by 2015.

"In addition, our new all-access subscription model has been rolled out in 38 markets and is progressing as anticipated," Gannett's president and CEO Gracia Martore said at a presentation to media and entertainment analysts in New York on Thursday. "New ventures like Digital Marketing Services and the USA TODAY Sports Media Group that leverage and extend our brands and assets are gaining traction and delivering results. We are confident in our strategy and our ability to achieve sustainable revenue growth while maintaining a strong balance sheet and generating increasing shareholder value."

The company also increased its revenue 150 percent to $0.80 per share annually and purchased approximately 2.4 million shares for $35.5 million during the quarter.

Sunday, June 24, 2012

3 Key Measures To Improve Your Portfolio With Every Purchase


Everytime I make a new investment I am looking to improve my overall portfolio. There are 3 key measures that I look at in which a dividend growth stock purchase may improve my investment portfolio. A new buy may improve my portfolio by increasing overall diversification, increasing my current dividend yield or by increasing my dividend growth rate. Every single time I make an investment I look to improve the portfolio by at least one of these metrics. If a purchase helps me in more then one metric then it is even better. 

Increase Portfolio Diversification

Diversification involves reducing risk by investing in a variety of assets. For your overall financial picture this will involve investing in different assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate. For dividend growth stock investing, diversification involves investing in companies from different industries. You may want to invest in companies from the oil industry, retail industry or restaurant industry. There are many industries available to invest in which will aide us in our attempt to diversify our dividend growth stock portfolio.

When I look to make an investment I always look to see what industry the company operates in. Then I look over my portfolio to determine if I already have investments in that particular industry. If I do, how much of my portfolio does that industry make up. I don’t want to have all my stock investments be from one or two particular industries. For me the more industries I can invest in the more diverse my portfolio is. With higher diversification my portfolio will have less risk. This is because not all industries will be affected the same way by different market conditions. If the oil industry is really suffering, my oil stocks may be going down. However, my stocks from other industries may still be doing alright or even wonderful.

Increase Portfolio Dividend Yield

Another way I may look to improve my portfolio is by investing in stocks that will help increase my portfolio dividend yield. One of the goals of dividend growth stock investing involves bringing in dividend income. If I can increase my overall portfolio dividend yield then I am increasing the income that I am being paid by my companies.

For example, if I have a portfolio of dividend growth stocks that is worth $10,000 and I expect to receive about $350 in dividend income this year then my portfolio dividend yield is 3.5% (350 divided by 10,000). Now when I am looking at new investments I know that if I invest in any stock currently yielding higher then 3.5% it will raise my overall portfolio yield. If I decide to invest in a company that is currently yielding 5% then I will increase my portfolio yield. Let’s say I invest $1,000 in a company yielding 5%. I will expect this company to pay me $50 in dividend income this year. My new portfolio dividend yield will increase to 3.64% (400 income dividend by 11,000 portfolio). This is good because on the whole my portfolio is earning me more income for each dollar invested.

Buffett's Berkshire buys Waco newspaper


WACO, Texas - Billionaire Warren Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is expanding its newsprint division, buying the Waco Tribune-Herald, its second newspaper in Texas, the company announced Friday.

For Buffett, who is Berkshire's CEO, acquiring the Waco Tribune-Herald fits his stated interest in buying small and medium-sized newspapers in places with a strong sense of community.

"This is a very strong, growing market with terrific assets including Baylor University and the new research park," Terry Kroeger, president of Berkshire's BH Media Group and CEO of the Omaha World-Herald Company, said in a statement.

The Tribune-Herald is being sold by Robinson Media LLC, a Waco family business that bought it in 2009 from Atlanta-based Cox Enterprises. The newspaper has 124 employees.

The purchase, for an undisclosed price, is expected to close July 31.

The Tribune-Herald, with its daily circulation of 34,000 and 39,000 on Sundays, is one of many newspapers in which Buffett now has a stake. Buffett has said his company is likely to buy more newspapers in the next few years, and Berkshire Hathaway will not try to influence the editorial policies of any of them.

Berkshire Hathaway has owned the Buffalo News of New York for decades and bought its hometown paper, the Omaha World-Herald, in December. The company is also the largest shareholder of Washington Post Co., with a 23 percent stake.

Earlier this month, Omaha-based Berkshire announced that it is buying the Bryan-College Station Eagle, another Texas newspaper.

Berkshire also disclosed this month that it owned 3.2 percent of newspaper publisher Lee Enterprises' stock at the end of March.

In May, Berkshire announced a deal to buy 63 newspapers from Media General Inc. for $142 million. Berkshire also is lending $445 million to Media General. In return, Berkshire is getting a 19.9 percent stake in Media General and a seat on its board of directors.

Buffett has defended the viability of newspapers, saying that they will have a decent future if they continue delivering information that can't be found elsewhere. They also need to stop offering news free online, he has said.

"In towns and cities where there is a strong sense of community, there is no more important institution than the local paper," Buffett said in a statement last month.

Berkshire's Kroeger met with Tribune-Herald employees on Friday, saying there are no plans to make major changes at the newspaper or launch layoffs. He said the company will work with managers in Waco to determine what might need to be done.

"The long-term fate of the Waco Trib is in better hands with professional newspaper people than it is left in the hands of the local community," Robinson Media Chairman Clifton Robinson told the Tribune Herald.

Beyond newspapers, Berkshire owns clothing, insurance, furniture, utility, jewelry and corporate jet companies. It also has big investments in companies including Coca-Cola Co., IBM Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co.

From cnbc.com

Friday, June 22, 2012

How He Got Rich - The Forgotten Billionaire J. Paul Getty?


He's one of America's greatest success stories. But despite being the world's richest man during his time, J. Paul Getty is almost forgotten today.

The wealth Getty amassed is almost unimaginable. At one time, his estimated worth was roughly 1/900th of the entire U.S. economy. Today that would equate to $160 billion -- four times Warren Buffett's net worth.

Getty got his start in the windswept oil fields of Oklahoma. In 1914, at the age of 21, he became a wildcatter, searching for oil in some of the most unforgiving land in the country.

By the time he was 23, Getty had earned his first million (although $1 million in 1916 would be worth about $20 million today).

But J. Paul Getty was not just an oilman. And while he did make a fortune drilling for oil, he also made a fortune in a completely different place -- Wall Street.

Consider the story of Tide Water Associated Oil Co. Getty first bought the shares in 1932, in the middle of The Great Depression. The Dow had dropped from a high of 380 in 1929... all the way down to 40 -- a fall of nearly 90% in three years. Investors had dumped everything. No one was buying stocks.

Getty first bought shares of Tide Water at just $2.12 per share. Five years later, they traded above $20. And this is just one example of his success. Some stocks he owned grew to 100 times the value he originally bought them for.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

One Characteristic Buffett’s Holdings All Have in Common


Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway holdings (both subsidiaries and stocks) are all very different types of businesses. Consider these different industries which Berkshire has holdings in:
  • Insurance
  • Manufactured Homes
  • Jewelry
  • Fast Food
  • Aviation
  • Chemical
  • Underwear
  • Journalism
  • TV Networks
  • Furniture
  • Banking
  • Kitchenware
  • Railroad

This list, of course, is only touching the surface.

Point being, Berkshire owns businesses in many different industries.

How, then, does Buffett still claim to stay within his “circle of competence”?

There must be some common factor among his holdings. As successful as Buffett has been during his investing career, the common factor should be regarded with great reverence. So what is it?

Many of you, I’m sure, have already guessed it. There is nothing complicated here. The answer is so simple that it almost seems like a waste of time. But perhaps there is power in simplicity.

This time, take a look at a list of actual businesses in Berkshire’s portfolio (subsidiaries and stock). The list is made up of many of Berkshire’s largest holdings:
  • GEICO Auto Insurance
  • Coca-Cola
  • IBM
  • American Express Co
  • Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad
  • Wells Fargo & Co
  • Wal-Mart
  • Procter & Gamble
  • ConocoPhillips
  • Dairy Queen
  • Nebraska Furniture Mart
While I am sure it is possible to argue that there is more than one common characteristic between these businesses, the one screaming similarity is that they all have some sort of durable competitive advantage. None of these businesses would easily lose its competitive advantage overnight. Warren Buffett has clearly explained that he only invests in companies with an economic moat (his term for durable competitive advantage).


7 Dividend Stocks For A Confident And Secure Future


Are you confident and secure in your investing process? It is my firm belief that most investors will lose money in the stock market over their lifetime. It is not that the market is a bad place to invest your money, but left unchecked the psychology of the market will lead you to do just the opposite of what you should to be doing.

The great investors know this. Consider Warren Buffett's famous quote, 'We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful'. How do we overcome our natural instincts to sell when we should be buying?

Confidence
First, we must follow a process we are 100% confident in. Doubt is the gateway to destructive behavior. Many approaches have proven successful over time. I have chosen income investing, primarily through individual Dividend Growth Stocks. How do we become so confident in a process that we are willing to trust our life's savings to as the world crumbles around us?

Experience
Confidence comes from knowledge and experience. We must study our approach and understand the process. It is easy for me to watch stock prices crater knowing that it is not only providing an excellent entry point for future capital appreciation, but also higher current yields that will grow each year as the companies continue to raise their dividends. Knowing how it works is good, but comfort in the process comes from having been there before and experiencing the gains after coming out of a downturn.

Quality
Finally, the most important step is selecting great investments. For me, those are good solid dividend companies that have a proven track record of increasing their dividends and the financial ability to continue doing so in the future. 

Below are seven companies that are leaders in their industry and have increased dividends for more than 30 consecutive years for your consideration:

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) sells retail building materials and supplies, lumber, hardware and appliances through more than 1,700 stores in the U.S. and Canada. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1961 and has increased its dividend payments for 50 consecutive years. Yield: 2.3%

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) is the largest retailer in North America,Wal-Mart operates a chain of discount department stores, wholesale clubs, and combination discount stores and supermarkets. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 38 consecutive years. Yield: 2.3%

Sunday, June 17, 2012

The Do’s and Don’ts of IPO Investing

Investors are always itchy to get on board with the hot new tech stock IPO – despite the rcent lackluster performance of some big names . So, how do you know the difference between a bull and a bear on IPO day?

Be Wary of Cash Outs

Some initial public offerings seem more about letting founders and other insiders vash out of their holdings than anything else. There’s one problem with this conspiracy theory, however: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules dictate that a company’s officers and employees hold their stock for a predetermined period of time known as a “lock-up period.” This is anywhere from 90 days to two years. Still, when doing your homework ask yourself this: Does the company have a sustainable business model that will make stock ownership an attractive option – or is it just trying to cash in on being the fad of the moment?

Watch Out For Irrational Exuberance

Because IPOs are such media-driven events, there’s often an initial period of euphoria before a crash. For example,one electric care company saw a 60 percent increase in the price of its stock during the first hour and a half of trading. When the initial buzz wore off, the stock’s value plummeted 43 percent over the next four days.. A more cautious investor would do well to sit back and see what the stock does for a few days, waiting for a dip, rather than buying at the initial asking price.

Look at the Underwriters

You don’t have a crystal ball to know whether a stock is going to do well. You can, however, look to experts who are intimately involved in the process and keep an eye on what they’re doing. Underwriters work in two ways: “best effort” and “firm commitment.” You’re going to want to buy stocks where the underwriters have made a firm commitment.

This means that, as part of their investment deal, they have to buy a certain amount of stock. They then attempt to resell this stock at something resembling the IPO price. This means their financial welfare is directly tied to the success or failure of the company. When an underwriter invests on a firm commitment basis, you know they have faith in the company.

“Best effort?” Not so much. If a company doesn’t have underwriters with full faith in it, why should you?

Investing In New Companies For The Extra Cautious

Perhaps the most cautious course of action you can take is to wait for the lock-up period to end. Even if the company is sound, with a good business plan and a product or service that people are interested in, the stock’s value might drop sharply after the lock-up period is over. This can be the ideal time to buy, as the excess stocks flood the market and depress the price.

Do Your Research

As with any investment instrument, you need to do your due diligence before you purchase a stock. A company’s prospectus is available for any potential investor to peruse prior to the IPO. In fact, you can find them online on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website.

Don’t let your desire to get rich quick have you throwing your money down the toilet. Be patient, do research, see what other investors are doing – and then you’ll be better equipped to invest in an IPO.

From mint.com

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Cash Just May Be Your Riskiest Investment



Quantitative easing (QE), it is such a benign sounding term. It is somewhat relaxing rolling off your lips. Unfortunately, this rose has thorns. QE in simple terms is the government printing money and buying financial assets (e.g. bonds, etc.) in an effort to stimulate the economy. A side effect of QE is higher prices of the financial assets bought, which in turn lowers their yield.

Stocks surged last Wednesday in anticipation that the Federal Reserve is considering a new economic stimulus in the form of quantitative easing. In addition to another round of QE (QE3?), some investors are speculating that the Fed could extend its program of swapping short-term bonds for long-term bonds in an effort to to hold down yields on 10-year and 30-year bonds.

Lower yields on debt instruments is not the only side effect of QE. Another and more serious side effect is the devaluation of our currency. Printing fake money to solve real problems has never succeed. Germany, Yugoslavia, and many others, have provided textbook examples of the futility of such an exercise - it always ends in a financial disaster!

If the the U.S. Government is monetizing the debt, the dollar will continue to fall against strong currencies and assets with real intrinsic value such as commodities. Two things you don't want to be holding when the government starts printing money are:

1. Debt (someone owing you)
2. Cash

As more dollars are created, the the ones already in circulation are worth less, and if you hold debt, you will be paid back with devalued dollars. As a side note, it is to your advantage to owe cash since you will be the one paying it back with dollars that are worth less. So what can you do?

If you believe it is just a bump in the road, then a more focused concentration on quality multinationals such as these may be the best solution:

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) | Yield: 2.7%
The Coca-Cola Company is the world's largest soft drink company with a sizable fruit juice business. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1893 and has increased its dividend payments for 50 consecutive years. 

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) | Yield: 3.2%
McDonald's Corporation is the largest fast-food restaurant company in the world, with about 33,500 restaurants in 119 countries. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1976 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years. 

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) | Yield: 3.3%
Abbott Laboratories is a diversified life science company that is planning to split into two publicly traded companies, one in diversified medical products and the other in research-based pharmaceuticals. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1926 and has increased its dividend payments for 40 consecutive years. 

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Yield: 3.4%
Johnson & Johnson is a leader in the pharmaceutical, medical device and consumer products industries. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1944 and has increased its dividend payments for 50 consecutive years. 

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) | Yield: 3.6%
The Procter & Gamble Company is a leading consumer products company that markets household and personal care products in more than 180 countries. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1891 and has increased its dividend payments for 55 consecutive years. 

Dell Inc. (DELL) Announces First Quarterly Dividend


Dell announced late Tuesday that it was joining the growing ranks of tech companies that pay a dividend. Microsoft (MSFT), Intel(INTC), Oracle (ORCL) and Cisco (CSCO) all pay quarterly dividends, and Apple (AAPL) announced earlier this year it will join the group.

Dell has adopted a dividend policy under which the company intends to pay quarterly cash dividends on its common stock beginning in the third quarter of the current fiscal year. Dell expects the initial dividend rate to be $0.32 per share per year, or $0.08 per share quarterly. Based on Monday’s closing price of $11.86 for Dell stock, the stock would yield 2.7%. 

Dell's CFO, Brian Gladden, stated:

Our efforts to streamline our operations and shift the mix of our business over the past several years have resulted in sustainably strong cash flow from operations, enabling us to increase the percentage of capital we’ve allocated to research and development, capital expenditures and acquisitions while maintaining an ongoing share repurchase program. The payment of a quarterly cash dividend to Dell’s shareholders adds another element to our disciplined capital allocation strategy.

As with other tech. companies that have initiated a dividend program, I will take a wait and see approach before considering buying the stock. It is important to determine if the company will develop a "dividend culture", or if they are just going through the motions. 


Asia's Richest Man Li Ka-shing Reaffirms Succession Plan, Says Son Richard In Acquisition Talks


Hong Kong telecommunications billionaire Richard Li, the younger son of Asia’s richest man Li Ka-shing, is in acquisition talks with “several sizeable companies,” the elder Li said at a press conference on Friday, according to a front-page report in today’s South China Morning Post. The businesses hold “long-term” prospects and aren’t in the media and entertainment industries, the father said.

Li Ka-shing, 83, spoke about Richard while discussing his own succession plans with the press after annual shareholder meetings of his flagship companies Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa yesterday.

Reaffirming a plan he described in an exclusive interview with Forbes earlier this year, Li senior said his elder son Victor would be his successor at Cheung Kong and Hutchison Whampoa. (See link here to our interview with Li Ka-shing.) The elder Li ranked No. 9 on the 2012 Forbes Billionaires List with wealth of $25.5 billion.

Richard, who ranked No. 960 with wealth of $1.3 billion on the same list and runs his own telecommunications empire, “will also have a very successful career,” his father said, pledging his “full support” and also noting “there will be no conflict” among Victor’s and Richard’s businesses, the South China Morning Post reported. Businesses controlled by Richard include PCCW Ltd., Pacific Century Premium Developments and the HKT Trust. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Li said he would support Richard’s new projects with “cash,” and the younger son’s assets would increase “several-fold” through the father’s support. 

Warren Buffett adds Texas daily to newspaper stable

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett is expanding his newspaper empire, with the purchase of a small Texas daily.


Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc has agreed to buy the Bryan-College Station Eagle in Texas from the Evening Post Publishing Co for an undisclosed sum, according to the Omaha World-Herald. The 123-year-old Eagle has a circulation of 20,000.

Buffett has been on a shopping spree of late, picking up most of Media General Inc's newspapers and investing in chains like Lee Enterprises Inc.

He stands out for his enthusiasm for small- and medium-sized community-based papers at a time when most investors and companies are heading for the exits.

Freedom Communications sold its remaining newspapers, including the Orange County Register, to a group lead by Massachusetts businessman Aaron Kushner.

The New York Times Co divested its the group of newspapers scattered throughout the U.S. Southeast and California earlier this year.

Berkshire also owns the Buffalo News, the Omaha World-Herald Co and a stake in the Washington Post Co.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Are Successful Traders Born or Created?

The question of whether successful traders are born or can be trained has been debated extensively. Essentially, it’s the old argument of nature versus nurture. In the trading realm, books have been written and movies made surrounding this theme for many years.

Some of you may have seen the movie "Trading Places" in which two well-heeled owners of a commodities brokerage firm (The Duke Brothers) place a $1.00 wager with one another on whether they can turn a street-smart petty criminal into a successful trader. The result is a very funny movie which has become a cult classic among traders.

In the print category, "The Turtle Traders" have been written about at length both in articles and in several books. Similar to "Trading Places" the movie, "The Turtle Traders" started as an experiment by legendary trader Richard Dennis who (unlike most of his trader colleagues) firmly believed that with the right psychological traits, he could turn ordinary people into consistently profitable traders. As it turns out, the experiment produced spectacular results as the majority of those chosen went on to become wildly successful in their own right.

Being a trading instructor obviously puts me in the camp that believes successful traders can be created. My job is to create as many as possible. Still, it does help to have some innate characteristics suited to the profession one is pursuing. We sometimes hear the statement "He/she is a natural," or "He/she makes it look easy" when referring to a person that seems to execute flawlessly. This is more the exception rather than the rule, though. Most people have to exert lots of effort in their pursuit of achievement.

An aspiring athlete, as an example, might have great physical abilities such as being able to run very fast or jump very high. However, without the proper training, experience, and most importantly, motivation, that person can never reach the pinnacle of success. The person with less athletic prowess will indeed have to work harder. But with more focus and drive than his more talented counterpart, he’ll have a better chance of succeeding.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

How To Become A Full-Time Value Investor - Rule Number 0

Investors can learn a lot by listening to Warren Buffett. I think they can learn even more by listening closely to Charles Munger. Unless Munger has something to add, he literally says “I have nothing to add.” If he does say something, you can assume it's worthwhile. 

Rule number 1 - Buffett
Rule number one is, “Don’t lose money.”
Rule number two is, “Don’t forget rule number one.”

I must admit that I have always found this rule particularly uninspiring. 

Yes, I understand the concept of “margin of safety.” I also know there’s nowhere to hide. There's risk in holding cash, bonds, gold, commodities and/or stocks. For me, stocks are easier to analyze. I prefer them to the alternatives. American stocks in particular are potentially less risky. There's more publicly available information about U.S. stocks than about any other asset class on the planet. 

Thanks to the SEC, we know there are profitable companies out there that have more cash in the bank (after deducting all liabilities) than the stock sells for. That's as safe as it gets. 

And then a tsunami comes along, 9/11 happens, Chavez or Kirchner nationalize something and/or management, aided by well-paid accountants, lies about the true state of the company. 

Such events are somewhat unknowable and wholly unpredictable. More importantly, they can cause you to lose money regardless of your margin of safety. 

That is why I find rule number one so uninspiring. There are many reasons investors lose money.Some of those reasons are within their control. “Don’t lose money” applies to the outcome. At best, the thoughtful investor is able to control the process.

Rule number 0 - Munger
Mozart became the most famous composer in the world but was utterly miserable most of the time, and one of the reasons was because he always overspent his income. If Mozart can’t get by with this kind of asinine conduct, I don’t think you should try.

Since I heard that, I have been taking it very seriously. I am now not spending 25% of my after-tax income. As Munger would say, I avoid a lot of dumb stuff by sitting on my hands. My friends and family haven’t noticed any lifestyle changes. They may or may not have noticed I smoke two cigars a month instead of two a week. I use my bike more often. My wife noticed our phones now accept inbound calls while she is calling outbound (Voipbuster/SIP). It's amazing how much money you cannot spend without anyone noticing. 

In any case, next time you scoff at a company with a single-digit net margin, think of your own personal “net margin.” How much cash do you have left in the bank after taking care of your expenses ? 

Friday, June 8, 2012

Buffett Lunch Auction Raises Record $3.46 Million for Charity


Warren Buffett’s lunch auction, an annual fundraiser for the Glide Foundation in San Francisco, raised a record $3.46 million as online bidding nearly tripled the price in the last minute of the weeklong event.

The auction on EBay Inc. (EBAY)’s website attracted 106 bids. The winner, who wasn’t immediately identified, and seven companions get to dine with Buffett at the Smith & Wollensky steakhouse in New York. Bidding stood at $1.23 million about 30 seconds before the auction ended last night, according to EBay.

The event has brought in more than $14.6 million in 13 years for Glide, which serves meals to the needy and runs a church in San Francisco’s blighted Tenderloin district. The billionaire investor was introduced to the Rev. Cecil Williams, the founder of Glide, by his first wife, Susan Buffett, a volunteer for the charity who died in 2004.

“We met at Glide,” Williams, 82, said of Buffett at a gathering to watch auction results last night in San Francisco. “He just said, ‘I haven’t seen anything like this.’”

Buffett is chairman and chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) He earned his fortune and reputation investing in out-of-favor stocks, transforming his firm from a failing textile mill into a $200 billion seller of insurance, energy and freight hauling. He has pledged almost all of his wealth to charity.

“I was suspicious when I heard my wife raving about this place in San Francisco,” Buffett, 81, said in a video posted on the auction website. “What I witnessed was an institution and an individual that really gave up on nobody. They took the people that the rest of the world had forgotten, people who’d given up on themselves, and they felt that every human being had a potential.”

The past two auctions were won by Ted Weschler, who was subsequently hired by Buffett last year to help oversee Berkshire’s investments.

Glide Lunch With Warren Buffett Results:

Year Winner Winning Bid 2000 Anonymous $25,000 2001 Anonymous $18,000 2002 Anonymous $25,000 2003 David Einhorn $250,100 2004 Jason Choo $202,100 2005 Anonymous $351,100 2006 Yongping Duan $620,100 2007 Mohnish Pabrai, Guy Spier, Harina Kapoor $650,100 2008 Zhao Danyang $2,110,100 2009 Salida Capital $1,680,300 2010 Ted Weschler $2,626,311 2011 Ted Weschler $2,626,411 2012 Anonymous $3,456,789

Source: Glide and EBay

From bloomberg.com

Thursday, June 7, 2012

'Bargain' Bid as Warren Buffett Lunch Auction Goes Into Final Day


Lunch with Warren
With just over 24 hours to go, the high bid for lunch with Warren Buffett is just over $200,000.

That's around 8 percent of last year's record $2,626,411 winning bid by Ted Weschler, who is now working for Buffett as a Berkshire Hathaway portfolio manager.

Ted also won the previous year's auction with a bid of $2,626,311.

Without Ted in the hunt, we may not see a new record this year. The price, however, is sure to move sharply higher just before the auction ends tomorrow at 10:30 pm ET.

And if someone else thinks they could also get a job offer, all bets are off.



The organizers are planning a live video stream at Glide.org and eBay.com/GLIDE of their "countdown celebration" at a San Francisco restaurant.

Proceeds go to San Francisco's Glide Foundation. It describes its mission as creating a "radically inclusive, just and loving community mobilized to alleviate suffering and break the cycles of poverty and marginalization."

Buffett was introduced to Glide by his first wife, Susan. He calls it "maybe the most effective organization I’ve seen for people down on their luck."

Bidders need to be pre-qualified to participate.



Current Berkshire stock prices:

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

What are the lessons of Anne Scheiber's story


In the depths of the depression, when she was already 38 years old and earning only a little more than $3,000 a year, Anne Scheiber invested a major portion of her life savings in stocks. She entrusted the money to the youngest of her four brothers, Bernard, who was getting started at 22 as a Wall Street broker. He did well picking issues for her as the market drifted upward in 1933 and '34. But his firm did not. It went bust suddenly, and Anne lost all her money.

"She was bitter with my father for the rest of her life," recalls Bernard's son Laurence, 41, a New York financial services salesman. "In fact, she got more bitter the older and richer she got."

Some of her anger at her broker brother seems understandable. After all, she had accumulated the money penny by penny for years by skipping meals, wearing clothes until they frayed and even walking to work in the rain to save bus fare. You might expect her to have turned against the very idea of investing as well. But not Anne; not for a minute. She rededicated herself to her saving and investing regimen with such a vengeance that it consumed her life--while also rewarding her with astonishing wealth. Although she never married, never even had a sweetheart, she did have one love: investing.

In 1944, 10 years after her big loss, she started fresh with a $5,000 account at Merrill Lynch Pierce Fenner & Beane and slowly built the nest egg up to $20 million by the time she died last January, loveless and alone at 101. It's now worth $22 million.

Few investors, including the best-known professionals of our age, have matched her record. Her return works out to 22.1% a year, above the performance of Vanguard's venerable John Neff (13.9%), better than pioneering securities analyst Benjamin Graham (17.4%), and just below Warren Buffett (22.7%) and Fidelity Magellan's Peter Lynch (29.2%). What's more, Anne's basic time-tested investing style can easily be adopted by any small investor. It relies on dedication more than dazzling financial analysis, faith in major companies more than a flair for prescient stock picking, and patience more than the pursuit of immediate profits. 

What are the lessons of Anne Scheiber's story? Here are eight investing tips--plus two concluding thoughts.

1. Invest in leading brands. Anne called them franchise names, by which she meant leading companies that created products she admired. For example, she owned Bristol-Myers, Allied Chemical and Coca-Cola. She also followed her instincts on untested companies. "When Pepsi-Cola came along, she tried it," says Fay, "and then bought PepsiCo when it was the new kid on the block."

2. Favor firms with growing earnings. Anne tended to ignore a stock's price-to-earnings ratio. Instead, she focused on the company's ability to increase profits. She reasoned that stocks are overpriced sometimes and underpriced others but it all works out in the end if the company's income rises year after year.

3. Capitalize on your interests. Anne always enjoyed movies. So she turned that pleasure into one of her investing themes by devouring Variety in search of the best entertainment companies. She scored big with Columbia, Paramount and Loews, as well as Capital Cities Broadcasting.

4. Invest in small bites. In addition to adding diversity to her portfolio, that rule automatically caused her to pick up extra shares when prices were low and avoid going overboard when prices were high.

5. Reinvest your dividends. It's the same principle as playing with the house's money in gambling, with this advantage--it's a sure moneymaker in long-term investing

6. Never sell. Or at least, never sell a stock you believe in. "For a long time in the rotten bear market of the '70s, many of her drug stocks were down, some by as much as 50%" says Fay. "But she hung on because she believed in them. She didn't panic in the crash of '87 either. She thought the general market had gotten overpriced, plus she was convinced her stocks would come back."

7. Keep informed. Anne went to all of her companies' New York City shareholder meetings. Rain, sleet or shine, she would walk over from her rent-stabilized, $450-a-month studio apartment in her trademark black coat and hat, buttonhole the CEO and demand answers, just as she did when she was an auditor. Then she would compare her notes with what the Merrill analysts were saying. Fay adds, however, that she also attended the meetings for the freebies. "Even when she had millions, she'd show up with a bag," confirms a relative. "If there was food served, she'd fill the bag and live on it for days."

8. Save with tax-exempt bonds. They provided more safety than stocks and cut her tax bill. When she died, she had 60% in stocks, 30% in bonds and 10% in cash.

In addition to those investing ideas, Anne's life also illustrates two other lessons worth considering, especially if you hope to end up with more than enough money as she did:

9. Give something back. Her $22 million gift to Yeshiva, plus an extra $100,000 she gave to an Israeli educational group, will help countless young women realize their full potential for years to come. Yeshiva's president Norman Lamm says: "Anne Scheiber lived to be 101 years old, but here at Yeshiva University her vision and legacy will live forever." One of her relatives who wasn't left a cent, New York City bank officer Dolly Acheson, adds that the Yeshiva gift gave her a "feeling of redemption." As she puts it: "At least in the end all that money went to a very good cause."

10. And finally, enjoy your money. As intelligent as Anne Scheiber was, she failed miserably on this one. She died without one real friend; she didn't get even one phone call during her last five years of life. Says her former broker Fay: "At some level, a recluse like her must get some psychic reward to keep going on that way. But to you and me, her life was terrible. A big day for her was walking down to the Merrill Lynch vault near Wall Street to visit her stock certificates. She did that a lot."


The Most Successful Dividend Investors of all time


Dividend investing is as sexy as watching paint dry on the wall. Defining an entry criteria that selects quality dividend stocks with rising dividends over time and then patiently reinvesting these dividends while sitting on your hands is not exciting. While active traders have a plethora of hedge fund managers on the covers of Forbes magazine there are not many well-publicized successful dividend investors. Even value investing has its own superstars – Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.

I did some research and uncovered several successful dividend investors, whose stories provide reassurance that the traits of successful dividend investing I outlined in a previous post are indeed accurate.

The first investor is Anne Scheiber, who turned a $5,000 investment in 1944 into $22 million by the time of her death at the age of 101 in 1995. Anne Scheiber worked as an IRS auditor for 23 years, never earning more than $3150/year. The one important lesson she learned auditing tax returns was that the surest way to become rich in America is by accumulating stocks. She accumulated stocks in brand name companies she understood and then reinvested dividends for decades. She never sold, in order to avoid paying taxes and commissions. She also never sold even during the 1972-1974 bear market as well as the 1987 market crash because she had high conviction in her stocks picks. She also held a diversified portfolio of almost 100 individual securities in brand names such as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Schering Plough (acquired by Pfizer in 2009). She read annual reports with the same inquisitive mind she audited tax returns during her tenure at the IRS and also attended annual shareholders meetings. Anne Scheiber did her own research on stocks, and was focusing her attention on strong franchises which have the opportunity to increase earnings and pay higher dividends over time.

In her later years she reinvested her dividends into tax free municipal bonds, which is why her portfolio had a 30% allocation to fixed income at the time of her death. At the time of her death, her portfolio was throwing off $750,000 in dividend and interest income annually. She donated her whole fortune to Yeshiva University, even though she never attended it herself.

The second investor is Grace Groner, who turned a small $180 investment in 1935 into $7 million by the time of her death in 2010. Ms Groner, who worked as a secretary at Abbott Laboratories for 43 years invested $180 in 3 shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 1935. She then simply reinvested the dividends for the next 75 years. She never sold, but just held on to her shares.

She was frugal, having grown up in the depression era, and was the classical millionaire next door type of person who was not interested in keeping up with the Joneses. Grace Groner left her entire fortune to her Alma Mater. Her $7 million donation is generating approximately $250,000 in annual dividend income.


Tuesday, June 5, 2012

The Chess Concepts Peter Thiel Used To Become A Billionaire


Through notes from Peter Thiel's CS183: Startup class at Stanford University, we have a unique window into the mind of the venture capitalist and hedge fund manager. He's fascinated with human nature, and integrates what he learned from his former career as a chess master into his lectures.

Chess is a contained universe: there are only 32 pieces on the board and 64 squares those pieces can occupy. But starting up a company takes much more than raw intellectual ability; it requires what Thiel calls "The Mechanics of Mafia," or the understanding of complex human dynamics. Linking the two worlds is Thiel's passion. Here are some of the chess concepts he highlighted in his class, thanks to notes from one of his former students, Blake Masters:

Know the relative value of your pieces:
In chess, the queen is the most valuable piece on the board. In the standard valuation system, it is given a 9, whereas the rook (5), bishop (3), knight (3), and pawn (1) are lower. In his lecture Value Systems, Thiel mentions Guy Kawasaki’s equation on how to assess the value of a company based on the types of people you have:

Pre-money valuation = ($1M x Number of Engineers) – ($500k x Number of MBAs).

So engineers are more valuable pieces than MBAs.

From his lecture If You Build It, Will They Come? Thiel points out that within any group, there is a wide range of talent. This goes for engineering as much as it goes for sales. “Engineering is transparent … It is fairly easy to evaluate how good someone is. Are they a good coder? An ubercoder? Things are different with sales. Sales isn’t very transparent at all. We are tempted to lump all salespeople in with vacuum cleaner salesmen, but really there is a whole set of gradations. There are amateurs, mediocrities, experts, masters, and even grandmasters.”

“But if you don’t believe that sales grandmasters exist, you haven’t met Elon [Musk]. He managed to get $500m in government grants for building rockets, which is SpaceX, and also for building electric cars, which is done by his other company, Tesla.”

The take-away lesson: Just like with chess pieces, people are not of equal value when it comes to your organization. You must be able to accurately assess their value. And within any field there are amateurs, mediocrities, experts, masters, and grandmasters.

Know how your pieces work best together:
In his lecture The Mechanics of Mafia Thiel discusses two personality types: “nerds” and “athletes.” “Engineers and STEM people tend to be highly intelligent, good at problem solving, and naturally non zero-sum. Athletes tend to be highly-motivated fighters; you only win if the other guy loses.” A company made up of only athletes will be biased toward competing. A company made up of only nerds will ignore the situations where you have to fight. “So you have to strike the right balance between nerds and athletes.”

The take-away lesson: You need some athletes to protect your nerds when it’s time to fight.

Warren Buffett's Stock Buying Secret Revealed


The secret is out.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway held over 1.6 million shares of Lee Enterprises, about 3.2 percent of its outstanding shares, as of March 31, according to a filing with the SEC late today. On that date the stake was worth $2.1 million. The total market value of the company is around $60 million.

The stock is soaring in after-hours trading, up $0.29 to $1.44 as of 4:40p ET. That's an increase of more than 25 percent.

Current price: [LEE 1.15 --- UNCH ]

The Lee stake is tiny by Berkshire standards, but its particularly interesting because Buffett's company had wanted to keep it secret.

In its May 15 filing listing its U.S. stock portfolio as of the end of the first quarter, Berkshire had said some information was being kept confidential.

Usually, the SEC grants Berkshire's requests for secrecy, but this time it didn't.

Tonight's filing says the request for "confidential treatment" was denied on May 25.

It's a continuation of Buffett's local newspaper play. Lee owns 49 daily newspapers and 300 weekly newspapers. Most of them are in midsize markets, but it also publishes the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

In November, Berkshire bought Buffett's home-town newspaper, the Omaha World-Herald.

More recently, Berkshire bought 63 newspaper from Media General for $142 million.

Buffett has said that the newspaper business overall is in trouble, but he's optimistic about small to mid-sized newspapers that provide local news and information available nowhere else.

In a letter to all of Berkshire's newspapers less than two months ago, Buffett wrote that he's looking for more papers to buy. "We will favor towns and cities with a strong sense of community, comparable to the 26 in which we will soon operate. If a citizenry cares little about its community, it will eventually care little about its newspaper... It's your job to make your paper indispensable to anyone who cares about what is going on in your city or town."

Buffett has promised not to interfere in any editorial decisions at the newspaper Berkshire owns.

Stock Portfolio June 2012


For Stock Portfolio June 2012, we have add in BURSA into our portfolio.

Bursa Malaysia Berhad is an exchange holding company, listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia Securities. It's operate a fully integrated exchange, offering the complete range of exchange-related services, including trading, clearing, settlement and depository services. 

Marc Faber : Warren Buffett was Right about Gold


Although he has long disagreed with Warren Buffett, Marc Faber conceded in an interview that Buffett’s view of gold is basically correct, and that there are certain disadvantages to holding gold.

Marc Faber : “Well, you see, I’m an advocate of investments that generate free cash flow. In other words, you invest in something and every year you get, after all expenditures, some money in the form of interest payments or in the form of dividends.

And that allows you a lot of flexibility because if you have all your money in physical gold or in exploration companies the problem is you have no cash flow.

So if let’s say your portfolio drops by 50 percent, you don’t have any money to add to your positions, whereas if you have cash flow, every year some money comes in and you have purchasing power to buy the assets that during that year fell the most or where you think some value is emerging. And I think it is very important to have always cash flow to invest in opportunities. And so I also advocate essentially a diversification.

You know, a few weeks ago Mr. Buffett came out and said that gold is unattractive and so forth and several studies will show that stocks over the long run have performed better than gold. I fully agree with this study. It should be clear that the company that generates and pays out dividends over time will perform better than a dead asset like gold.

However — and this is a big “However” — I once talked to Jeremy Siegel, he’s written many books about the performance of stocks, in 1800 and so forth. I [said], Jeremy, you start your book on the performance at 1800, are you actually aware that by 1841, the poor man’s recession, most of the canal companies and most of the banks were bankrupt.

So if you invested your money in 1800, by 1841 most of it was gone. And this is the point, in equities you have to rebalance your portfolio and in gold you don’t have to do that. It’s a totally different type of asset. You can’t compare it. And the other day, you know, Kodak went bankrupt. I remember in ’72 and ’73 among the 10 most popular stocks among institutions you had Polaroid and Eastman Kodak and both went bust over time and they were disastrous investments.

So it’s nice to say the market is going up in the long run by this and that, that I agree, but you have to rebalance the portfolio. And in gold you don’t have to do that. Gold is basically cash that doesn’t pay any interest.”


Related Books

Rich Dad's Advisors: Guide to Investing In Gold and Silver: Protect Your Financial Future

Gold Bubble: Profiting From Gold's Impending Collapse

The Golden Revolution: How to Prepare for the Coming Global Gold Standard