Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Zong Tops China Billionaires as Communist-to-Capitalist


Twenty-five years ago, when Zong Qinghou was 42, he made his living selling soft drinks and popsicles to schoolchildren. He says he earned about $8 a month -- less than a third of China’s average wage at the time -- and was so broke that he once slept in a tunnel under the streets of Beijing rather than spend on a hotel.

Today, Zong, 67, is still selling soda -- and lots of other things -- as the wealthiest man in mainland China, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its December cover package, “The World’s Richest People.” His net worth of $20.1 billion as of Oct. 5 ranks him No. 30 in the world, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Supermarkets stock the juice, soda and bottled water his Hangzhou Wahaha Group Co. produces, and doting Chinese parents buy his baby formula and children’s clothes. In all of Asia, only Hong Kong property developers Li Ka-shing and Lee Shau-kee and Indian industrialist Mukesh Ambani are richer.

Even in a country that has exploded in wealth and created a new economic ruling class, Zong’s story stands out. His rags-to- riches tale is remarkable not just for its trajectory but for the way he has thrived amid China’s seemingly impossible conflation of capitalism and communism.

Zong, who didn’t attend high school, lived on a farm commune from 1964 to 1978 during Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution. He read the Communist revolutionary’s books on leadership and learned about enduring through struggle. After Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s drive toward a market economy, came to power, Zong took over a grocery store in 1987 with two retired teachers and a $22,000 loan from relatives.


Frugal and Autocratic


Now Wahaha’s chairman, Zong remains a frugal and autocratic manager, traits he honed in approving his first shop’s every expense, down to the purchase of a broom. He often sleeps in a sixth-floor office at Wahaha’s gray headquarters in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province. For lunch, he heads downstairs to the canteen, furnished with formica tables, where he eats the same food as his workers.

“When you are poor, you’ll have to think of ways to be better off,” says Zong, recalling his early years while chain- smoking Davidoff cigarettes outside Beijing’s News Plaza Hotel. “That experience helps me to endure.”

People passing the five-star hotel a few blocks from Tiananmen Square don’t give the nation’s top billionaire a second glance. He certainly doesn’t advertise his wealth. He’s dressed in a dark jacket and slacks and plain black shoes, all made in China. He says he bought the footwear only after someone told him his old pair was wearing out.

Swiss Watch


He has no bodyguards; his only escort is the manager of Wahaha’s Beijing operations.

“I don’t need expensive clothing,” he says.

Zong’s sole nod to his status is his $48,000 Vacheron Constantin watch, which he bought in Switzerland to replace an old Rolex.

“Other people say Rolex is for the newly rich,” he says, smiling.

Zong is prospering amid China’s booming economy and burgeoning middle class. In the past three decades, growth has averaged 10.1 percent a year, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.

Wahaha, which means laughing baby in Mandarin, attracts these new consumers. Flavored, nutritionally enhanced milk caters to families with young kids, while mineral water and iced green teas target adults.

’Juicy Milk’


“Our juicy milk was a big hit,” Zong says, of his drink that combines juice and milk.

Wahaha generated $11 billion in sales last year, with a 7.2 percent share of China’s soft drink market. It’s No. 3, behind Coca-Cola Co. and Hong Kong-listed Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp. (322), according to London-based Euromonitor International Plc. Zong estimates that earnings at his closely held Wahaha will soar 60 percent to $1.6 billion this year from $1 billion in 2011.

Such a surge would make Zong even richer. He and his wife, Shi Youzhen, and their daughter, Kelly Zong, hold about 80 percent of the company. Zong disclosed the stake to Bloomberg News in September, more than doubling previous estimates of his wealth. (The Bloomberg Billionaires Index operates under the rule that billionaire fortunes are inherently family fortunes.)

Zong’s net worth is based on the average enterprise value- to-sales and price-to-earnings multiples of three publicly traded peers, using Wahaha’s profits, plus $1.9 billion in cash from estimated dividends, market performance and taxes.

Raising Profile


Zong is likely to use his status as China’s richest person to pursue acquisitions overseas, says Zhang Lu, an analyst at Capital Securities Corp.

“Given the fact that Wahaha is already a well-known brand domestically, disclosing his share and wealth would help to boost the global profile of both Wahaha and Zong himself,” she says.

Zong joins four other mainland Chinese billionaires in Bloomberg’s list of the world’s 200 richest people. Wang Jianlin, 58, chairman of property developer Dalian Wanda Group, is the second wealthiest, with a net worth of $9.1 billion as of Oct. 5. Baidu Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robin Li, co-founder of the nation’s biggest search engine, is third, with $8.4 billion. Ma Huateng, 41, of Tencent Holdings Ltd., the country’s largest Internet company by market value, is fourth, with $7 billion. Longfor Properties Co.’s Wu Yajun, 48, the Beijing-based developer who’s the richest woman in China, is worth $6.4 billion and is fifth.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Warren Buffett's Timeless Advice: 'Don't Make This Mistake'


Warren Buffett has some timeless advice for investors that he can't repeat too many times.

At the end of his live, two-hour appearance with Becky Quick on CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning, she gave him a chance to do a free association reaction to a single word: "buy."

Here's his response:

"I say, basically, 'hold.' The idea that the European news or slowdown in this or that or anything like that, that would not cause you to, if you owned a good farm and had it run by a good tenant, you wouldn't sell it because somebody says, 'Here's a news item,' you know, 'This is happening in Greece' or something of the sort.

"If you owned an apartment house and you got to raise the rents a little and it was well located and you had a good manager, you wouldn't dream of selling it.

"If you had a good business personally, a local McDonald's franchise, you wouldn't think of buying or selling it every day.

"Now, when you own stocks, you own pieces of businesses, and they're wonderful businesses. You can pick the best businesses in the world.

"And to buy or sell on current news is just crazy. You're in a wonderful business. You've got people running it for you. You know you're going to do well over five to ten years. And to think news events should cause you to dance in or out of something that's a wonderful game is a terrible mistake.

"So, get into a bunch of wonderful businesses and stay with them...

"I've been buying all my life. I bought my first stock when I was 11-years old and it was about three months after Pearl Harbor, and Corregidor was falling, and they had the Death March at Bataan and all the news was terrible. It was a great time to buy stocks. And I should have held that stock forever, and I've been buying stocks ever since."

From cnbc.com




Friday, October 12, 2012

How big a portfolio do I need to live on dividends in retirement?


How much does one need to invest before one’s dividends pay for basic monthly expenses in retirement? I realize there are a lot of variables, but this is a very general question.

You’re correct that there are a lot of variables, but let’s do some very rough math. We’ll assume you’re retiring today, and for simplicity we’ll ignore taxes (which may not be a big factor anyway, thanks to the dividend tax credit. For more on this my Yield Hog column from this week).

Let’s further assume that your investment portfolio yields 3.75 per cent, calculated as total annual dividends divided by total market value. I didn’t pull this number out of a hat; it’s the yield of my Strategy Lab model dividend portfolio.

Could you construct a portfolio with a higher yield? Absolutely. But in my opinion a diversified portfolio of stocks yielding 3.75 per cent is easily achievable without taking on excessive risk.

Now, we need to determine what your basic expenses would be in retirement, keeping in mind that a lot of costs – raising kids and paying the mortgage, for example – may well be behind you. Let’s assume you can get by on $50,000 for basic expenses such as food, property taxes, clothing, transportation and utilities. Granted, this doesn’t leave room for lavish Mediterranean cruises or a new Lexus every few years, but you won’t be eating cat food, either.

My family of four, for example, lives comfortably on less than that. I know this because I have tracked our expenses for the past several years. I recommend you do the same; it’s the only way to know how much money is actually going out the door. One of the easiest ways to track your spending is to keep all of your bank and credit card statements, and then review them each year to see how much you’ve spent.

Now the question is, how much capital do you need in order to generate that $50,000 in annual income, assuming a yield of 3.75 per cent? The answer is: $50,000/0.0375, or $1.33-million.

Think you could get by on $40,000? You’d need a portfolio of $40,000/0.0375, or about $1.07-million. If you assume a higher dividend yield of, say, 4 per cent, you’d need a portfolio of $40,000/0.04, or $1-million.

You can play around with different scenarios on your own. The general formula is X/Y = Z, where X is your annual expenses, Y is the portfolio yield expressed as a decimal, and Z is the required portfolio value. As long as you know two of those numbers, you can solve for the third.

What about inflation? Well, if you own stocks that raise their dividends regularly, as many pipelines, utilities, banks and consumer companies do, your income will grow and protect you from rising prices.

Bear in mind that most investment professionals recommend that you also allocate a portion of your portfolio to bonds or guaranteed investment certificates. When the stock market takes a dive, you’ll be glad you have them.

Remember, too, that you may well have other sources of income in retirement, including the Canada Pension Plan, Old Age Security, registered savings and, if you’re fortunate, a company pension as well. So you probably won’t have to rely on dividends for all of your spending needs. But having some dividend income in retirement will certainly help.

There are a lot of moving parts here, and this analysis is general in nature and not meant to be taken as specific investment advice. A good financial planner can put together a comprehensive plan that addresses your specific situation.





Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Top 7 Warren Buffett Quotes on Gold Investing


Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha and Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A), is one of the most famous investors of all time. This billionaire has made so much money that he hardly knows what to do with it, although he has decided that after his passing he would like a sizable portion of his earnings to be dedicated to charity. Still, for all of the successes and endeavors that Buffett has taken on in his lifetime, there is one asset that he never quite warmed up to: gold.

Buffett is well-known for not only his strengths as a businessman, but also for his rather outspoken hatred of gold. The stance is somewhat controversial given the massive popularity of the precious metal that has made millions for investors all around. Also, we have seen other billionaire investors betting big on gold in recent weeks. Nevertheless, Buffett is not the least bit timid about his opposition towards the commodity. We scoured the Internet to bring you the seven best Warren Buffett quotes regarding gold and why he hates it so much.

1. “Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

2. “The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn’t going to do anything for you….it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time.”

3. “Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn’t produce anything."

4. “I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion – that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States…For $7 trillion…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils (NYSE:XOM) and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I’ll take the farmland and the Exxon Mobils.”

How The Rich Get Richer And You Can, Too


We all know, innately, how the rich get richer. Money begets money. But how does that actually happen, aside from compounding interest and purely financial factors?

You could take the cynic's view that the game is rigged. But the more accurate answer, backed by research, is that the rich get richer because of great parenting. How rich you become over your lifetime is directly related to how early you capture the basic truths of finance and investing.

You have seen the exception that proves the rule, the rich kid who blows his family's wealth in a generation through poor decisions. Chalk that up to absentee parents. Truly, teaching is the missing link.


In a paper unveiled a few months ago, researchers led by Annamaria Lusardi, professor of economics at George Washington University, found that an early understanding of financial concepts accounts for as much as half of the wealth gap between the affluent and those with low incomes . Lusardi also found an exponential effect: Those who acquire financial understanding early tend to accumulate assets faster and those with more assets tend to keep learning about personal finance because they have more at stake. (Emphasis added)

There are two powerful forces at work here, in terms of how the rich get richer. Let's tease them out so that you can benefit from the knowledge.

First and foremost, how the rich get richer has a lot to do with picking the right parents. Kidding aside, being born into a developed-country household, availing yourself of a quality education at a low relative cost, enjoying the benefits of a healthy diet and a safe childhood, all of these things give a person automatic advantages.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Invest Like Warren Buffett: 3 Ways to Profit Like the Sage of Omaha


In the days leading up to Facebook’s historic (and now infamous) IPO, CEO Mark Zuckerburg pursued Warren Buffet’s sage advice. The young CEO, who’s gone from creating Facebook in his Harvard dorm-room to billionaire in only 8 years, spoke “for hours” with Buffett about how to take the social network public.

And it’s no surprise. As one of the wealthiest people in the world, Buffett is also known for his incredible business acumen and strong philosophies around business, economics, and investing.

What makes him different however, is that most of these philosophies go “against the grain” and collective wisdom of the financial markets.

Here are three of his investing lessons that will help you learn from the master.

1. Invest in Productive, Cash-Generating Businesses

Contrary to most financial managers, Buffett doesn’t recommend investing in currency-backed assets or gold. Especially as a way to hedge inflation.

Instead, he favors productive assets like businesses, farms and real estate. His rationale is that these supposed “safe” investments are actually the riskiest.

The main reason is that these assets actually lose purchasing power over time, while sound productive assets should grow – despite market cycles.

And Buffett has said that the goal for his companies isn’t to simply “make money”.

The goal is to generate more money then you will have to pay in taxes and inflation, so that you can buy more things later than you can with the same money right now.

Monday, October 1, 2012

10 Rules For Multiplying Personal Wealth


I have the privilege of teaching financial planning courses at local colleges and adult learning centers.

One of the things we do in class is recite and write down a set of rules I hope each student can learn to live by.

Here are a few key rules to remember:

Rule 1: Be systematic, unemotional and diversified

This is the very first rule we touch on right from the beginning. There's a popular bumper sticker that says, "I'm spending my grandkids' inheritance."

That whole idea just frustrates me. In some ways, our society's personality is such that if we can spend our money before we die, we've lived a great life. But you can't do that.

Rule 2: Never spend principal

That's the second rule. Inflation has gone above 10 per cent in the US economy five times, and I'd bet you it will happen again.

Rule 3: Never borrow money to buy a depreciating asset

Almost everybody does this at some point. But as soon as possible, and definitely by retirement, you have to get back to a cash basis.

How many people know what a $30,000 car bought on credit costs them at age 25? In retirement dollars, at age 65 and assuming a hypothetical 10 per cent return, that financed car could cost as much as $11,314 a month in potential income. Forever!

So, do you or your children understand what an "investment" in a car really costs you? Yes, I know we all buy cars. But try to imagine what would happen if I got every 25-year-old to forgo just one car purchase and invest that same amount of money in their long-term retirement goals. What a huge difference that could make to their choices at retirement!

Rule 4: Never save money in a spending account

Keep separate bank accounts for saving and spending. You have to save in savings accounts. If you truly want those savings to grow, use an account that helps you leave the money at work, rather than a "slush fund" that's easy to dip into.

People tell me they are saving $545 a month in an account. Yet when I ask them how much they have accumulated after seven years of doing this, their answer is often $1,123 because they spend out of that same account.

It is not a save-to-save account -- it's a save-to-spend account! If you know you're not naturally a disciplined saver, make it harder to get at the money. You'll be doing yourself a favor in the long run.

Rule 5: Use half, save half

Every time you pay off a debt, get a pay raise, get a bonus, or have any excess cash, have fun with half the money, and put the other half toward your long-term goals.

This is one of the best rules, especially for younger people. By following this rule consistently, in ten years, most people are amazed at how much they can save.

Whether you save or not has nothing to do with how much money you make. Either you save or you don't. It's a habit. Make a habit of investing half of any windfall, big or small, right off the top.

Sir John Templeton 16 Rules For Investment Success


Interesting set of rules from legendary investor John Templeton:

No. 1 INVEST FOR MAXIMUM TOTAL REAL RETURN
This means the return on invested dollars after taxes and after inflation. This is the only rational objective for most long-term investors. Any investment strategy that fails to recognize the insidious effect of taxes and inflation fails to recognize the true nature of the investment environment and thus is severely handicapped.

It is vital that you protect purchasing power. One of the biggest mistakes people make is putting too much money into fixed-income securities.

Today’s dollar buys only what 35 cents bought in the mid 1970s, what 21 cents bought in 1960, and what 15 cents bought after World War II. U.S. consumer prices have risen every one of the last 38 years.

If inflation averages 4%, it will reduce the buying power of a $100,000 portfolio to $68,000 in just 10 years. In other words, to maintain the same buying power, that portfolio would have to grow to $147,000— a 47% gain simply to remain even over a decade. And this doesn’t even count taxes.

No. 2 INVEST—DON’T TRADE OR SPECULATE
The stock market is not a casino, but if you move in and out of stocks every time they move a point or two, or if you continually sell short… or deal only in options…or trade in futures…the market will be your casino. And, like most gamblers, you may lose eventually—or frequently.

You may find your profits consumed by commissions. You may find a market you expected to turn down turning up—and up, and up—in defiance of all your careful calculations and short sales. Every time a Wall Street news announcer says, “This just in,” your heart will stop.

Keep in mind the wise words of Lucien Hooper, a Wall Street legend: “What always impresses me,” he wrote,“is how much better the relaxed, long-term owners of stock do with their portfolios than the traders do with their switching of inventory. The relaxed investor is usually better informed and more understanding of essential values; he is more patient and less emotional; he pays smaller capital gains taxes; he does not incur unnecessary brokerage commissions; and he avoids behaving like Cassius by ‘thinking too much.’”

No.3 REMAIN FLEXIBLE AND OPEN-MINDED ABOUT TYPES OF INVESTMENT
There are times to buy blue chip stocks, cyclical stocks, corporate bonds, U.S. Treasury instruments, and so on. And there are times to sit on cash, because sometimes cash enables you to take advantage of investment opportunities.

The fact is there is no one kind of investment that is always best. If a particular industry or type of security becomes popular with investors, that popularity will always prove temporary and—when lost—may not return for many years.

Having said that, I should note that, for most of the time, most of our clients’ money has been in common stocks. A look at history will show why. From January of 1946 through June of 1991, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 11.4% average annually—including reinvestment of dividends but not counting taxes—compared with an average annual inflation rate of 4.4%. Had the Dow merely kept pace with inflation, it would be around 1,400 right now instead of over 3,000, a figure that seemed extreme to some 10 years ago, when I calculated that it was a very realistic possibility on the horizon.

Look also at the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Index of 500 stocks. From the start of the 1950s through the end of the 1980s—four decades altogether—the S&P 500 rose at an average rate of 12.5%, compared with 4.3% for inflation, 4.8% for U.S. Treasury bonds, 5.2% for Treasury bills, and 5.4% for high-grade corporate bonds.

In fact, the S&P 500 outperformed inflation, Treasury bills, and corporate bonds in every decade except the ’70s, and it outperformed Treasury bonds—supposedly the safest of all investments—in all four decades. I repeat: There is no real safety without preserving purchasing power.

No. 4 BUY LOW
Of course, you say, that’s obvious. Well, it may be, but that isn’t the way the market works. When prices are high, a lot of investors are buying a lot of stocks. Prices are low when demand is low. Investors have pulled back, people are discouraged and pessimistic.

When almost everyone is pessimistic at the same time, the entire market collapses. More often, just stocks in particular fields fall. Industries such as automaking and casualty insurance go through regular cycles. Sometimes stocks of companies like the thrift institutions or money-center banks fall out of favor all at once.

Whatever the reason, investors are on the sidelines, sitting on their wallets. Yes, they tell you: “Buy low, sell high.” But all too many of them bought high and sold low. Then you ask: “When will you buy the stock?” The usual answer: “Why, after analysts agree on a favorable outlook.”

This is foolish, but it is human nature. It is extremely difficult to go against the crowd—to buy when everyone else is selling or has sold, to buy when things look darkest, to buy when so many experts are telling you that stocks in general, or in this particular industry, or even in this particular company, are risky right now.

But, if you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you can’t outperform the market if you buy the market. And chances are if you buy what everyone is buying you will do so only after it is already overpriced.

Heed the words of the great pioneer of stock analysis Benjamin Graham: “Buy when most people…including experts…are pessimistic, and sell when they are actively optimistic.”

Bernard Baruch, advisor to presidents, was even more succinct:

“Never follow the crowd.”

So simple in concept. So difficult in execution.

No. 5 WHEN BUYING STOCKS, SEARCH FOR BARGAINS AMONG QUALITY STOCKS
Quality is a company strongly entrenched as the sales leader in a growing market. Quality is a company that’s the technological leader in a field that depends on technical innovation. Quality is a strong management team with a proven track record. Quality is a well-capitalized company that is among the first into a new market. Quality is a wellknown trusted brand for a high-profit-margin consumer product.

Naturally, you cannot consider these attributes of quality in isolation. A company may be the low-cost producer, for example, but it is not a quality stock if its product line is falling out of favor with customers. Likewise, being the technological leader in a technological field means little without adequate capitalization for expansion and marketing.

Determining quality in a stock is like reviewing a restaurant. You don’t expect it to be 100% perfect, but before it gets three or four stars you want it to be superior.

No. 6 BUY VALUE, NOT MARKET TRENDS OR THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
A wise investor knows that the stock market is really a market of stocks. While individual stocks may be pulled along momentarily by a strong bull market, ultimately it is the individual stocks that determine the market, not vice versa. All too many investors focus on the market trend or economic outlook. But individual stocks can rise in a bear market and fall in a bull market.

The stock market and the economy do not always march in lock step. Bear markets do not always coincide with recessions, and an overall decline in corporate earnings does not always cause a simultaneous decline in stock prices. So buy individual stocks, not the market trend or economic outlook.