Showing posts with label Charlie Munger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charlie Munger. Show all posts

Sunday, June 10, 2012

How To Become A Full-Time Value Investor - Rule Number 0

Investors can learn a lot by listening to Warren Buffett. I think they can learn even more by listening closely to Charles Munger. Unless Munger has something to add, he literally says “I have nothing to add.” If he does say something, you can assume it's worthwhile. 

Rule number 1 - Buffett
Rule number one is, “Don’t lose money.”
Rule number two is, “Don’t forget rule number one.”

I must admit that I have always found this rule particularly uninspiring. 

Yes, I understand the concept of “margin of safety.” I also know there’s nowhere to hide. There's risk in holding cash, bonds, gold, commodities and/or stocks. For me, stocks are easier to analyze. I prefer them to the alternatives. American stocks in particular are potentially less risky. There's more publicly available information about U.S. stocks than about any other asset class on the planet. 

Thanks to the SEC, we know there are profitable companies out there that have more cash in the bank (after deducting all liabilities) than the stock sells for. That's as safe as it gets. 

And then a tsunami comes along, 9/11 happens, Chavez or Kirchner nationalize something and/or management, aided by well-paid accountants, lies about the true state of the company. 

Such events are somewhat unknowable and wholly unpredictable. More importantly, they can cause you to lose money regardless of your margin of safety. 

That is why I find rule number one so uninspiring. There are many reasons investors lose money.Some of those reasons are within their control. “Don’t lose money” applies to the outcome. At best, the thoughtful investor is able to control the process.

Rule number 0 - Munger
Mozart became the most famous composer in the world but was utterly miserable most of the time, and one of the reasons was because he always overspent his income. If Mozart can’t get by with this kind of asinine conduct, I don’t think you should try.

Since I heard that, I have been taking it very seriously. I am now not spending 25% of my after-tax income. As Munger would say, I avoid a lot of dumb stuff by sitting on my hands. My friends and family haven’t noticed any lifestyle changes. They may or may not have noticed I smoke two cigars a month instead of two a week. I use my bike more often. My wife noticed our phones now accept inbound calls while she is calling outbound (Voipbuster/SIP). It's amazing how much money you cannot spend without anyone noticing. 

In any case, next time you scoff at a company with a single-digit net margin, think of your own personal “net margin.” How much cash do you have left in the bank after taking care of your expenses ? 

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Berkshire Hathaway 2012 Shareholder Meeting Notes (part 2)


Written by Greg Speicher

Hedges
Some hedging required in operating businesses.

Buffett thinks about worse case scenarios all the time – more than most. They won’t take risks that threaten the business.

Valuations
Valuing GEICO is different than valuing Gen Re.

GEICO’s intrinsic value is greater than net worth and float. This is not true for all insurance businesses. GEICO will have growth plus underwriting profits.

Buffett would love to buy operating businesses at 9-10x pre-tax earnings if they had similar characteristics to Berkshire’s operating businesses. He would pay even more for Berkshrie’s businesses since they know the businesses.

Gold
Buffett would not buy gold. He prefers productive assets.

JP MorganBuffett bought JP Morgan for his personal account. He could not buy Wells Fargo in is personal account so he bought JP Morgan. His best ideas are in Berkshire.

Munger likes focused, long-term investing. Munger thinks investors should be thinking about the 98 1/2 percent of things that drive results, not the 1 1/2 percent.

If Buffett was not running Berkshire, he would own a lot of WFC in his personal account.

Berkshire Hathaway 2012 Shareholder Meeting Notes (part 1)


Written by Greg Speicher

The following is the first part of my notes from the 2012 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting. I have tried to be accurate, but I make no guaranty that I have been so. The notes are not complete, but rather the thoughts I wrote down during the meeting. I hope they are useful. Please take them with a grain of salt and cross check them against other sources.

Managing riskBuffett’s successor must be the chief risk officer.

Insurance divisions are already overseeing their own risk. Leverage will be avoided in the future.

Berkshire may not have access to all the deals they could do with Buffett, but there will be opportunities. They will do some things better after Buffett.

The special side deals such as the warrants have not been material.

Berkshire has a strong board with deep experience managing risk.

Repurchase of Berkshire shares
Berkshire has always tried to have an attitude of partnership towards shareholders. When Berkshire issued B shares, Buffett said in the proxy that he would not buy them at the offering price.

Buffett stated that Berkshire’s intrinsic value is significantly higher than 110% of book value. Buffett feels very comfortable with 1.1x book. Significantly (dramatically) undervalued.

Some of Berkshire’s businesses are undervalued; some are fairly valued.

Buffett would love to buy “tens of billions” at 1.1x book. The value of each shares goes up if shares are repurchased at 110% of book. It’s obvious.

He won’t go below cash buffer of $20 billion.

Many companies repurchase their stock at overvalued prices.